Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction

Hao HU; Run-guo YE; Hong-qi ZHANG; Ying-jie YANG; Yu-ling LIU

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204

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Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction

Papers | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction
- Journal on Communications Vol. 38, Issue 10, Pages: 122-134(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 解放军信息工程大学三院，河南郑州 450001
  2. 河南省信息安全重点实验室，河南郑州 450001
  3. 中国电子技术标准化研究院，北京 100007
  4. 中国科学院软件研究所可信计算与信息保障实验室，北京 100190
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)(2012AA012704);The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)(2015AA016006);The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFF0204003);The Science and Technology Leading Talent Project of Zhengzhou(131PLJRC644);The Equipment Pre-Research Foundation During the 13th Five-Year Plan Period(61400020201);The CCF-Venus “Hongyan” Research Plan(2017003);The Key Lab of Information Network Security,Ministry of Public Security(C15604)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204
  CLC： TP393.8
- Online First：2017-10，
  
  Published：25 October 2017
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Hao HU, Run-guo YE, Hong-qi ZHANG, et al. Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction[J]. Journal on Communications, 2017, 38(10): 122-134.
DOI：

Hao HU, Run-guo YE, Hong-qi ZHANG, et al. Quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction[J]. Journal on Communications, 2017, 38(10): 122-134. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2017204.

摘要

为准确、全面地预测攻击行为并量化攻击威胁，提出一种基于攻击预测的安全态势量化方法。通过融合攻击方、防御方和网络环境态势要素，依据实时检测的攻击事件评估攻击者能力和漏洞利用率，并计算攻防期望耗时；进而设计基于动态贝叶斯攻击图的攻击预测算法，推断后续攻击行为；最后从主机和网络这2个层面将攻击威胁量化为安全风险态势。实例分析表明，该方法符合实际对抗网络环境，能够准确预测攻击发生时间并合理量化攻击威胁。

Abstract

To predict the attack behaviors accurately and comprehensively as well as to quantify the threat of attack

a quantitative method for network security situation based on attack prediction was proposed.By fusing the situation factors of attacker

defender and network environment

the capability of attacker and the exploitability rate of vulnerability were evaluated utilizing the real-time detected attack events

and the expected time-cost for attack-defense were further calculated.Then an attack prediction algorithm based on the dynamic Bayesian attack graph was designed to infer the follow-up attack actions.At last

the attack threat was quantified as the security risk situation from two levels of the hosts and the overall network.Experimental analysis indicates that the proposed method is suitable for the real adversarial network environment

and is able to predict the occurrence time of attack accurately and quantify the attack threat reasonably.

关键词

Keywords

references

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