The prediction of the worm propagation is the basis of the worm defense.It is becoming more difficult to model the propagation of worms in the early stage of worm-spreading

because the worm strategies are smarter and the Internet structure is more complicated than ever before.In present study

a stochastic simulator was designed to simulate the propagation of worms.From the analysis of 1000 groups of experiment results

it was proved that the worm-propagation is a stochastic process

and the correlation coefficient between each group of results is close to 1.Therefore

a new prediction method was proposed

which could accurately calculate the propagation of worm when 0.1% of all vulnerable hosts were infected.